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FEINBERG FORECAST: Updated Projections (With 7 Weeks Until the 85th Oscars)

The Associated Press, Monday, January 7, 2013, 7:36am (PST)

The Hollywood Reporter -- Note: A special edition of the "Feinberg Forecast," featuring Scott's final pre-nominations forecast, will post Wednesday.

Every week through the Oscars on Feb. 24, The Hollywood Reporter 's awards analyst Scott Feinberg will release a new "Feinberg Forecast," a post in which he recaps the most noteworthy awards-related news of the past week and shares his latest assessment of the standings in each of the major awards categories. (For more information about Feinberg and how he arrives at his projections, as well as a key for the various colors and acronyms that appear throughout them, scroll to the bottom of this post.)

NOTEWORTHY DEVELOPMENTS SINCE LAST WEEK'S FORECAST:

The Producers Guild of America revealed its nominees for the 24th PGA Awards, which will be presented Jan. 26. The group, which nominates the producers of 10 films for its top prize, the Darryl F. Zanuck Producer of the Year Award in Theatrical Motion Pictures, included the six usual suspects -- Argo, Les Miserables, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook and Zero Dark Thirty -- and divided its other four spots among two indie hits, Beasts of the Southern Wild and Moonrise Kingdom, and two big-scale hits, Django Unchained and Skyfall (which becomes the first Bond film to ever score a PGA Award nom). Notably absent: The Dark Knight Rises and The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (a bad sign because the PGA loves hits more than the Academy does ), Amour and The Intouchables (the PGA almost never nominates foreign-language films) and The Master and The Impossible (which could have really used a PGA boost right about now).The Writers Guild of America on Jan. 4 revealed its nominees for the 65th WGA Awards, which will be presented Feb. 17. The group nominated five adapted screenplays and five original screenplays -- after disqualifying a considerable number of top Oscar contenders that failed to meet its stringent eligibility requirements. Argo, Life of Pi, Lincoln, The Perks of Being a Wallflower and Silver Linings Playbook were nominated for the best adapted screenplay WGA Award, but Anna Karenina, Beasts of the Southern Wild, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel and Les Miserables were not eligible for consideration. And Flight, Looper, The Master, Moonrise Kingdom and Zero Dark Thirty were nominated for the best original screenplay nod, but Amour, Django Unchained, The Impossible, Middle of Nowhere, Rust and Bone and Seven Psychopaths were not eligible.The Art Directors Guild on Jan. 2 revealed its nominees for the 17th ADG Awards, which will be presented on Feb. 2. The group nominated the production design of five films in each of three categories: period film, contemporary film and fantasy film. The nominees included such slam dunks as Anna Karenina, Cloud Atlas, Les Miserables, Life of Pi and Lincoln and on-the-bubble hopefuls Flight, The Impossible, Prometheus and Skyfall -- but not Beasts of the Southern Wild, The Master, Moonrise Kingdom or Snow White and the Huntsman, which many figured stood a decent shot.The Visual Effects Society announced that best director hopeful Ang Lee (Life of Pi) will receive its Visionary Award at the 11th VES Awards, which will be presented Feb. 5. The award honors an individual "who has uniquely and consistently employed the art and science of visual effects to foster imagination and ignite future discoveries by way of artistry, invention and groundbreaking work."The National Society of Film Critics revealed the results of voting for its 47th NSFC Awards. The group loved Amour, honoring the Austrian Oscar entry with its prizes for best film, best director (Michael Haneke) and best actress (Emmanuelle Riva). Other major prizes were awarded as follows: best actor to Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln), best supporting actor to Matthew McConaughey (Magic Mike and Bernie), best supporting actress to Amy Adams (The Master) and best nonfiction film to The Gatekeepers.The Palm Springs International Film Festival held its 24th annual awards gala Jan. 5. Many Academy members were on hand as prizes were awarded to a bunch of top Oscar contenders, including best picture hopeful Argo, best director hopefuls Tom Hooper (Les Miserables) and Robert Zemeckis (Flight), best actor hopefuls Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook) and Richard Gere (Arbitrage), best actress hopefuls Helen Mirren (Hitchcock) and Naomi Watts (The Impossible), best supporting actress hopefuls Sally Field (Lincoln) and Helen Hunt (The Sessions) and composer Mychael Danna (Life of Pi). Some acceptance speeches went over better than others.The American Association of Retired Persons announced its top 10 films of 2012, which is noteworthy because its members share the same demographics as most members of the Academy. Alphabetically, they are Amour, Argo, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, Hitchcock, Les Miserables, Lincoln, Quartet, The Sessions, Silver Linings Playbook and Zero Dark Thirty.The U.S. Senate -- key members of which recently questioned the veracity of Zero Dark Thirty in a letter to its distributor, Sony -- announced that a formal probe will be opened to try to determine whether members of the intelligence community provided writer Mark Boal, a best original screenplay hopeful, and/or Kathryn Bigelow, a best director hopeful, with classified intelligence, and, if so, whom.Lincoln got a lot of media attention on New Year's Day, which marked the 150th anniversary of President Abraham Lincoln signing the Emancipation Proclamation, the passage of which is at the center of best director hopeful Steven Spielberg's acclaimed film.Best actress hopeful Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook) graces the cover of the February edition of Vanity Fair, which will reach many Academy members -- either via subscription or newsstands -- just as they are sending their final Oscar ballots, on which Lawrence's name almost certainly will appear. An interview inside the magazine features comments from the actress that some have tried to frame as controversial but truly are not.

THIS WEEK'S FORECAST:

BEST PICTURE Front-runners Lincoln (DreamWorks, 11/9, PG-13, trailer ) AFI, IPA, PGA, SAG, WGA, HFPA, BFCA, ADG Argo (Warner Bros., 10/12, R, trailer )AFI, IPA, PGA, SAG, WGA, HFPA, BFCA, ADG Les Miserables (Universal, 12/25, PG-13, trailer )AFI, IPA, PGA, SAG, HFPA, BFCA, ADG Silver Linings Playbook (The Weinstein Co., 11/21, R, trailer )AFI, IPA, PGA, SAG, WGA, HFPA, BFCA, FI Zero Dark Thirty (Sony, 12/19, R, trailer ) NBR, NYFCC,BSFC, NYFCO, DCAC, AFI, IPA, PGA, WGA, IPA, HFPA, BFCA, ADG Life of Pi (20th Century Fox, 11/21, PG, trailer ) AFI, PGA, WGA, IPA, HFPA, BFCA, ADG Amour (Sony Pictures Classics, 12/19, PG-13, trailer ) LAFCA Django Unchained (The Weinstein Co., 12/25, R, trailer )AFI, PGA, HFPA, BFCA, ADG Beasts of the Southern Wild (Fox Searchlight, 6/27, PG-13, trailer ) AFI, PGA, IPA, BFCA, FI Moonrise Kingdom (Focus Features, 5/25, PG-13, trailer ) AFI, PGA, WGA, IPA, HFPA, BFCA, FI Major Threats Skyfall (Sony, 11/9, PG-13, trailer )IPA, PGA, ADG The Impossible (Summit, 12/21, PG-13, trailer ) ADG The Master (The Weinstein Co., 9/14, R, trailer ) WGA, BFCA The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (Fox Searchlight, 5/4, PG-13, trailer )SAG, HFPA, ADG The Intouchables (The Weinstein Co., 5/25, R, trailer ) Possibilities Flight (Paramount, 11/2, R, trailer ) WGA, ADG The Dark Knight Rises (Warner Bros., 7/20, PG-13, trailer ) AFI, ADG The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (Warner Bros., 12/14, PG-13, trailer ) ADG Cloud Atlas (Warner Bros., 10/26, R, trailer ) ADG The Perks of Being a Wallflower (Summit, 9/21, NR, trailer )

BEST DIRECTOR Front-runners Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)IPA, HFPA, BFCA Ben Affleck (Argo)IPA, HFPA, BFCA Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty) NBR, NYFCC, BSFC, NYFCO, DCAC, IPA, HFPA, BFCA Ang Lee (Life of Pi)HFPA, BFCA David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)IPA, BFCA, FI Major Threats Michael Haneke (Amour) Tom Hooper (Les Misérables) BFCA Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained)HFPA Paul Thomas Anderson (The Master)LAFCA Robert Zemeckis (Flight) Possibilities Christopher Nolan (The Dark Knight Rises) Sam Mendes (Skyfall) BenhZeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild) FI Wes Anderson (Moonrise Kingdom) FI Peter Jackson (The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey)

BEST ACTOR Front-runners Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln) NYFCC, BSFC, NYFCO, DCAC, IPA, HFPA, SAG, BFCA Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook) NBR, IPA, HFPA, SAG, BFCA, FI Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables)IPA, HFPA, SAG, BFCA John Hawkes (The Sessions)HFPA, SAG, BFCA, FI Denzel Washington (Flight)IPA, HFPA, SAG, BFCA Major Threats Jean-Louis Trintignant (Amour) Joaquin Phoenix (The Master) LAFCA, IPA, HFPA, BFCA Richard Gere (Arbitrage)HFPA Jack Black (Bernie) HFPA, FI Jamie Foxx (Django Unchained) Possibilities Omar Sy (The Intouchables) IPA Anthony Hopkins (Hitchcock) Bill Murray (Hyde Park on Hudson)HFPA Ben Affleck (Argo) Tom Holland (The Impossible)

BEST ACTRESS Front-runners Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)LAFCA, IPA, HFPA, SAG, BFCA, FI Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty) NBR, DCAC, IPA, HFPA, SAG, BFCA Naomi Watts (The Impossible)HFPA, SAG, BFCA Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone) HFPA, SAG, BFCA Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)LAFCA, BSFC, NYFCO, IPA, BFCA Major Threats Helen Mirren (Hitchcock)HFPA, SAG Quvenzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild) BFCA Maggie Smith (Quartet)HFPA Rachel Weisz (The Deep Blue Sea) NYFCC, HFPA Judi Dench (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel)HFPA Possibilities Keira Knightley (Anna Karenina)IPA Meryl Streep (Hope Springs)HFPA EmayatzyCorinealdi (Middle of Nowhere) FI Mary Elizabeth Winstead (Smashed) FI Frances McDormand (Promised Land)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR Front-runners Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln) NYFCO, IPA, HFPA, SAG, BFCA Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook)IPA, SAG, BFCA Alan Arkin (Argo)HFPA, SAG, BFCA Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master) DCAC, IPA, HFPA, SAG, BFCA Javier Bardem (Skyfall)IPA, SAG, BFCA Major Threats Eddie Redmayne (Les Miserables) IPA Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained)HFPA Leonardo DiCaprio (Django Unchained) NBR, HFPA John Goodman (Flight)IPA John Goodman (Argo) Possibilities Matthew McConaughey (Magic Mike) NYFCC, BFCA, FI Dwight Henry (Beasts of the Southern Wild)LAFCA Samuel L. Jackson (Django Unchained) Bryan Cranston (Argo) Ewan McGregor (The Impossible)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS Front-runners Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables) NYFCO, IPA, DCAC, HFPA, SAG, BFCA Sally Field (Lincoln) NYFCC, BSFC, HFPA, SAG, BFCA Helen Hunt (The Sessions)IPA, HFPA, SAG, BFCA, FI Amy Adams (The Master)LAFCA, IPA, HFPA, BFCA Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook) Major Threats Maggie Smith (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel) SAG Nicole Kidman (The Paperboy) HFPA, SAG Ann Dowd (Compliance) NBR, BFCA, FI Kelly Reilly (Flight) Possibilities Judi Dench (Skyfall) IPA, BFCA Amanda Seyfried (Les Miserables) Samantha Barks (Les Miserables)IPA Kerry Washington (Django Unchained)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY Front-runners Lincoln (Tony Kushner) NYFCC, BSFC, IPA, WGA, HFPA, BFCA Argo (Chris Terrio) LAFCA, IPA, WGA, HFPA, BFCA Silver Linings Playbook (David O. Russell) NBR, DCAC, IPA, WGA, HFPA, BFCA, FI Life of Pi (David Magee) IPA, WGA, BFCA Beasts of the Southern Wild (Lucy Alibar, BenhZeitlin) Major Threats Perks of Being a Wallflower (Stephen Chbosky) WGA, BFCA Les Miserables (William Nicholson) The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (Ol Parker) The Intouchables (Olivier Nakache, Eric Toledano) The Sessions (Ben Lewin)IPA Possibilities Quartet (Ronald Harwood) Bernie(Richard Linklater) The Dark Knight Rises (Christopher Nolan, Jonathan Nolan) The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (PhilippaBoyens, Guillermo Del Toro, Peter Jackson, Fran Walsh)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY Front-runners Zero Dark Thirty (Mark Boal) NYFCO, IPA, WGA, HFPA, BFCA Django Unchained (Quentin Tarantino) HFPA, BFCA The Master (Paul Thomas Anderson) IPA, WGA, BFCA Moonrise Kingdom (Wes Anderson) IPA, WGA, BFCA, FI Amour (Michael Haneke) Major Threats Looper (Rian Johnson) NBR, DCAC, WGA, BFCA Flight (John Gatins) IPA, WGA, BFCA The Intouchables (Eric Toledano, Olivier Nakache)IPA Arbitrage (Nicholas Jarecki) Possibilities Middle of Nowhere (Ava DuVernay) Seven Psychopaths (Martin McDonagh) FI The Impossible (Sergio G. Sanchez) Brave (Mark Andrews, Brenda Chapman)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE Front-runners Brave (Pixar, 6/22, PG, trailer ) IPA, HFPA, BFCA Wreck-It Ralph (Disney, 11/2, PG, trailer ) NBR, IPA, HFPA, BFCA Frankenweenie (Disney, 10/5, PG, trailer ) NYFCC, LAFCA, BSFC, IPA, HFPA, BFCA ParaNorman (Focus Features, 8/17, PG, trailer ) DCAC, BFCA Rise of the Guardians (DreamWorks Animation, 11/21, PG, trailer ) IPA, HFPA, BFCA Major Threats The Painting (GKIDS, TBA, TBA, trailer ) Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted (DreamWorks Animation, 6/8, PG, trailer ) IPA, BFCA Zarafa (GKIDS, TBA, TBA, trailer ) Hotel Transylvania (Sony Animation, 9/28, PG, trailer )HFPA Possibilities From Up on Poppy Hill (GKIDS, TBA, TBA, trailer ) The Pirates! Band of Misfits (Sony Animation, 4/27, PG, trailer ) The Rabbi's Cat (GKIDS, TBA, TBA, trailer )

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE Front-runners Searching for Sugar Man (Sony Pictures Classics, 7/27, PG-13, trailer ) NBR, IPA, WGA, BFCA, CEH The Gatekeepers (Sony Pictures Classics, 12/13, PG-13, clip ) LAFCA , IPA How to Survive a Plague (Sundance Selects, 9/21, TBA, trailer ) BSFC, FI Detropia (Loki Films, 9/7, TBA, trailer ) CEH Mea Maxima Culpa: Silence in the House of God (HBO Documentaries, TBA, TBA, trailer )WGA Major Threats Bully (The Weinstein Co., 3/30, PG-13, trailer ) DCAC, BFCA Chasing Ice (Submarine Entertainment, 11/9, PG-13, trailer ) IPA The Imposter (Indomina, 7/13, R, trailer ) BFCA, CEH Ai Weiwei: Never Sorry (Sundance Selects, 7/27, R, trailer )IPA The Invisible War (Docurama, 6/22, NR, trailer ) WGA, FI Possibilities Five Broken Cameras (Kino Lorber, 5/30, NR, trailer ) CEH The Waiting Room (International Film Circuit, 9/26, TBA, trailer ) FI The House I Live In (Charlotte Street Films, 10/5, NR, trailer ) This Is Not a Film (Palisades Tartan, 2/29, NR, trailer ) Ethel (HBO Documentaries, TBA, TBA, TBA)

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE Front-runners Austria, Amour NBR, NYFCC, NYFCO, DCAC, IPA, HFPA, BFCA, FI France, The Intouchables IPA, HFPA, BFCA Denmark, A Royal Affair IPA, HFPA, BFCA Switzerland, Sister FI Chile, No Major Threats Norway, Kon-TikiIPA, HFPA Iceland, The Deep Canada, War Witch IPA, FI Romania, Beyond the HillsIPA

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY Front-runners Life of Pi NYFCO, DCAC, IPA, BFCA The Master BSFC, IPA, BFCA Lincoln IPA, BFCA SkyfallLAFCA, IPA, BFCA Zero Dark Thirty NYFCC Major Threats Beasts of the Southern Wild IPA, FI Anna Karenina IPA Cloud Atlas Les Miserables BFCA Moonrise Kingdom FI Possibilities The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey Django Unchained The Dark Knight Rises Argo Samsara

BEST COSTUME DESIGN Front-runners Anna Karenina IPA, BFCA Cloud Atlas IPA, BFCA Les Miserables IPA, BFCA Lincoln BFCA Snow White and the HuntsmanIPA Major Threats The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey BFCA A Royal Affair IPA Django Unchained Mirror Mirror The Dark Knight Rises Possibilities Argo The Master Moonrise Kingdom Life of Pi The Hunger Games The Avengers Prometheus

BEST FILM EDITING Front-runners Zero Dark Thirty LAFCA, IPA, BFCA Lincoln BFCA Argo BFCA Les Miserables IPA, BFCA Silver Linings PlaybookIPA Major Threats The Master Life of Pi BFCA Django Unchained Cloud Atlas IPA The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey The Impossible Possibilities Beasts of the Southern Wild The Dark Knight Rises The Bourne Legacy FlightIPA Moonrise Kingdom Samsara

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING Front-runners The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey BFCA Lincoln BFCA Men in Black 3 Major Threats Les Miserables BFCA Hitchcock Looper Snow White and the Huntsman

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE Front-runners Lincoln (John Williams)IPA, HFPA, BFCA The Master (Johnny Greenwood) DCAC, IPA, BFCA Life of Pi (MychaelDanna) HFPA, BFCA Beasts of the Southern Wild (Dan Romer, BenhZeitlin) LAFCA, DCAC, IPA Argo (AlexandreDesplat) IPA, HFPA, BFCA Major Threats Rise of the Guardians (AlexandreDesplat) Anna Karenina (Dario Marianelli) IPA, HFPA The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (Howard Shore) Skyfall (Thomas Newman) IPA Zero Dark Thirty (AlexandreDesplat) Cloud Atlas (Reinhold Heil, Johnny Klimek, Tom Tykwer)HFPA Possibilities The Dark Knight Rises (Hans Zimmer) The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (Thomas Newman) On the Road (Gustavo Santaolalla) The Hunger Games (James Newton Howard) The Impossible (Fernando Velazquez)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN Front-runners Anna KareninaIPA, BFCA, ADG Les Miserables IPA, BFCA, ADG LincolnIPA, BFCA, ADG Life of Pi BFCA, ADG The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey BFCA, ADG Major Threats Zero Dark Thirty ADG Cloud Atlas DCAC, ADG The MasterLAFCA, IPA Argo ADG Django Unchained ADG Skyfall ADG The Dark Knight RisesIPA, ADG Possibilities Beasts of the Southern Wild Moonrise Kingdom Flight ADG The Impossible ADG Prometheus ADG A Royal Affair IPA The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel ADG Snow White and the Huntsman

BEST SOUND EDITING Front-runners Django Unchained The Dark Knight Rises Les MiserablesIPA Skyfall Lincoln Major Threats The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey Zero Dark Thirty The Avengers The Impossible Life of Pi IPA The Master Argo Possibilities FlightIPA The Amazing Spider-Man Cloud Atlas The Impossible The Bourne Legacy The Hunger Games

BEST SOUND MIXING Front-runners Django Unchained The Dark Knight Rises Les MiserablesIPA Skyfall Lincoln Major Threats The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey Zero Dark Thirty The Avengers The Impossible Life of Pi IPA The Master Argo Possibilities Flight The Amazing Spider-Man Cloud Atlas The Impossible The Bourne Legacy The Hunger Games

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS Front-runners Life of Pi IPA, BFCA The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey BFCA Cloud Atlas IPA, BFCA The Dark Knight RisesIPA, BFCA SkyfallIPA Major Threats The Avengers BFCA The Amazing Spider-Man Snow White & the Huntsman Possibilities Prometheus IPA John Carter

BEST ANIMATED SHORT Front-runners Paperman (Disney) Combustible (Sunrise, Inc.) The Eagleman Stag (Royal College of Art) Tram (Sacrebleu Productions) Maggie Simpson in 'The Longest Daycare' (Gracie Films) Major Threats Adam and Dog (Lodge Films) Dripped (ChezEddy) The Fall of the House of Usher (Melusine Productions, R&R Communications Inc., Les Armateurs, The Big Farm) Fresh Guacamole (PES) Head Over Heels (National Film and Television School)

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT Front-runners The Education of Mohammad Hussein (Loki Films) Open Heart (Urban Landscapes Inc.) Kings Point (Kings Point Documentary, Inc.) Mondays at Racine (Cynthia Wade Productions) Paraiso (The Strangebird Company) CEH Major Threats Inocente (Shine Global, Inc.) The Perfect Fit (SDI Productions Ltd.) Redemption (Downtown Docs)

* * *

KEY

Contenders' names are followed, when appropriate, by acronyms of the major awards groups (see below) that have already named them winners (in orange) or nominees (in purple). Some nominations are still pending (they appear in italics).

ACE = 63rd Eddie Awards (TBA)

ADG = 17th Art Directors Guild Awards (Feb. 2, 2013)

AFI = 13th American Film Institute Awards (TBA)

ASC = 27th American Society of Cinematographers Awards (TBA)

BAFTA = 66th British Academy Film Awards (TBA)

BFCA = 18th Critics' Choice Awards (Jan. 10, 2013)

BSFC = 33rd Boston Society of Film Critics Awards (Dec. 9, 2012)

CAS = 49th Cinema Audio Society Awards (TBA)

CDG = 15th Costume Design Guild Awards (TBA)

CEH = 6th Cinema Eye Honors (Jan. 9, 2013)

DCAC = 11th Washington D.C. Area Film Critics Awards (Dec. 10, 2012)

DGA = 65th Directors Guild of America Awards (TBA)

FI = 26th Independent Spirit Awards

HFPA = 70th Golden Globe Awards (TBA)

IAFA = 40th Annie Awards (TBA)

IPA = 17th Satellite Awards (Dec. 16, 2012)

LAFCA = 38th Los Angeles Film Critics Association Awards (TBA)

MPSE = 60th Golden Reel Awards (TBA)

NBR = 84th National Board of Review Awards (TBA)

NSFC = 47th National Society of Film Critics Awards (TBA)

NYFCC = 78th New York Film Critics Circle Awards (TBA)

NYFCO = 12th New York Film Critics Online Awards (Dec. 9, 2012)

PGA = 24th Producers Guild of America Awards (Jan. 26, 2013)

SAG = 19th Screen Actors Guild Awards (Jan. 27, 2013)

USC = 25th USC Scripter Awards (TBA)

VES = 11th Visual Effects Society Awards (Feb. 5, 2013)

WGA = 65th Writers Guild of America Awards (Feb. 17, 2013)

* * *

ABOUT SCOTT FEINBERG AND THE "FEINBERG FORECAST"

Scott Feinberg is one of the film industry's most trusted awards analysts and has one of the world's best track records at forecasting the Oscars, something that he has been doing since 2001. His best showings came in 2006 (when he correctly called 21 of 24 winners) and 2004 (when he correctly called 20 of 24 winners). He was the only pundit to project long-shot best picture nominations for The Reader (2008), The Blind Side (2009) and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (2011).

Scott factors into his projections personal impressions (based on advance screenings at festivals or elsewhere), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (comparing and contrasting how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated with the Academy), precursor awards (some awards groups have better track records than others of correlating with the Academy) and regular conversations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and voters).

Related article on THR.com:

Producers Guild Film Nominations Revealed

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Find more online: THR.com

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